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比特币的起落好似本世纪初纳斯达克崩盘

毫无疑问,世界经济对于“繁荣”和“萧条”两者的“你方唱罢我登场”早已是司空见惯。不过,资产一会儿坐火箭、一会儿玩跳水、一夜暴富一夜穷光蛋的景象可没多少人见过吧——然而,在加密货币世界里,“玩的就是心跳”已经见怪不怪。

事实上,加密货币市场那闪电般的速度催生了摩根士丹利的一份报告新鲜出炉——摩根士丹利将比特币最近的起起落落比作纳斯达克指数2000年前后的暴涨暴跌——只是,前者的速度相当于后者的15倍。

根据报告回忆,截至2000年3月,纳斯达克在519天之内上涨了278%;相比之下,比特币在短短35天里就上涨了248%,在19,500美元附近触及峰值,之后就开始了漫长的下挫之旅。

 比特币的起落好似本世纪初纳斯达克崩盘

                           (纳斯达克综合指数2000年的大崩盘,图片来源:the forecaster-interactive)

熊市下跌和反弹的相似性

据彭博社报道,比特币的大跳水其实并非严格的直线下挫,而是类似于纳斯达克当年的下跌形势。自去年12月以来,比特币的价格有过三次几近腰斩的暴跌,随后就是反弹。而类似地,纳斯达克在熊市时期也有五次跌幅将近44%。

二者在熊市行情下的反弹也有类似之处——比特币在熊市有两次暴涨了43%左右;纳斯达克的熊市大反弹则平均上涨了大约40%。

该报告补充说,比特币价值的下跌伴随着交易量的激增。然而,摩根士丹利分析师Sheena Shah写道,交易量激增并不意味着投资者活动增多,其实是他们急于脱身。

 比特币的起落好似本世纪初纳斯达克崩盘

              (比特币价格走势与纳指崩盘走势对比图,图片来源:Elementus)

比特币下一步将何去何从?

过去几天里,加密币市场使数十亿美元蒸发一空,现在的可能走上了复苏道路。3月18日周日当天,加密币总市值在2,750亿美元左右触底,自那之后反弹至了3,300亿美元,但距离一周前的3,800亿美元仍然有一段路要走。

过去,比特币的熊市(其实非常频繁)曾持续大约五个月。根报道,这些熊市时期比特币估值的跌幅在28%至92%不等。因此摩根士丹利说,最近一次70%的跌幅其实不值得大惊小怪。

不过分析师Sheena Shah仍补充道,加密货币的案例在经济史上极难找到类似,再加上每次熊市都各不相同,因此很难预测当前的熊市会不会重演前面的先例。

The world economy has seen its share of booms and busts, sure. However, ricocheting asset valuations, market dives, and overnight fortunes have never been so commonplace as they are in the world of cryptocurrency.

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In fact, the greased-lightning pace at which cryptocurrency markets operate has caused a recent report by Morgan Stanley to compare the recent moves of the Bitcoin network to the ca. 2000 boom and bust of the Nasdaq, only at 15 times the speed.

The report specifically recalls the Nasdaq’s 278-percent climb that took place over 519 days, ending in March of 2000; Bitcoin rose 248-percent in 35 days, peaking at roughly $19,500 before beginning a long journey down the mountain.

There are a few different theories as to what is causing the decline.

Similarities in Bear Market Drops and Rallies

Bloomberg reports that the decline of Bitcoin has not been exactly linear, similar to the fall of the Nasdaq. Since December, the price of Bitcoin has taken three sharp falls to the tune of around 50-percent before recovering. The Nasdaq also fell roughly 44-percent five times in its bear market.

There are also similarities in bear market rallies–the Bitcoin bear market has twice spiked up around 43-percent; the Nasdaq’s bear market rallies averaged out around 40 percent.

The report added that Bitcoin’s decline in value has been accompanied by a jump in trading volume. However, Morgan Stanley analyst Sheena Shah wrote that “rising trade volumes are thus not an indication of more investor activity but instead a rush to get out.”

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

The crypto markets may be on the pathway to recovery after shedding billions of dollars over the past several days. After bottoming out at around $275 billion on Sunday, March 18, the total market capitalization has climbed up to roughly $330 billion, but still has a ways to go until $380 billion, where it was a week prior.

In the past, Bitcoin’s bear markets (which have been plentiful) have lasted roughly five months. According to a Bloomberg report, valuations during these periods have dropped anywhere from 28 to 92 percent. According to Morgan Stanley, the most recent decline of 70 percent is “nothing out of the ordinary.”

However, Sheena Shah added that “the small number of historical examples and variability of each of the bear markets make it difficult to assume that the current bear market may take the same time period.”

At the time of writing, a single Bitcoin was worth roughly $8,750, recovering from a weekly low of around $7,400.

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